Democrat David Crowley holds a 7-point lead over Republican Tom Tiffany in the race for Wisconsin governor, according to the final Marquette Law School Poll released Wednesday, Oct. 28.

Milwaukee County Executive Crowley drew 51% support among likely voters. U.S. Rep. Tiffany drew 44%, with 4% undecided. Among all registered voters, the race tightened to 47%-44%.

The poll noted that the 7-point likely-voter gap falls within the margin of error for the difference between the two candidates. The margin of error was ±4.7 points for each candidate's percentage among likely voters, meaning the gap between them carries roughly double that uncertainty.

Cost of living dominates voter concerns

Nearly half of Wisconsin voters, 48%, named inflation and the cost of living as their top issue. That figure rose from 45% in September. Immigration and border security ranked second at 12%, followed by health insurance and jobs and the economy.

Forty-two percent of voters said they are worse off than a year ago. Another 42% said they are about the same. Seventy percent said they expect inflation to increase over the next 12 months, according to the poll.

Both candidates have centered affordability in their campaigns. At an Oct. 22 debate, Tiffany said the state's roughly $3 billion budget surplus should go back to taxpayers as long-term tax relief. Crowley called for investments in child care, health care and education, according to Fox 6.

Tiffany has proposed a 10% income tax cut for couples earning less than $150,000 a year and eliminating taxes on tips and overtime, according to WISN. Crowley has proposed a constitutional amendment to guarantee abortion rights in Wisconsin, according to the Marquette poll release. Among registered voters, 62% favor an abortion amendment and 83% favor the proposed tax cuts.

Turnout could decide the outcome

Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll, told Spectrum News 1 that turnout remains the key variable.

"I think it shows that Crowley has an advantage among the folks that are absolutely sure they're going to vote," Franklin said. "But you also see that the folks that are a little bit less likely to vote leans pretty strongly towards Tiffany."

The poll found Crowley's support among independent likely voters jumped from 44% in September to 56% in October. Tiffany's independent support rose from 18% to 26%. Still, 18% of independents remained undecided.

Kenosha early voting surged

Kenosha County saw an 87% increase in early in-person absentee voting on Oct. 20, the first day municipalities could offer it, according to Wisconsin Elections Commission data reported by Wisconsin Public Radio. That outpaced Milwaukee County's 63% increase and Dane County's 60% jump.

The survey interviewed 818 registered voters between Oct. 14 and Oct. 22. The likely-voter sample included 668 respondents. The race to succeed Gov. Tony Evers, who is not seeking a third term, ends Tuesday, Nov. 3, with polls open statewide from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.